New modelling shows that real gross state product (GSP) may fall by 5.25 per cent in calendar year 2020 and, in the September quarter, Victoria’s unemployment rate could rise to 9 per cent with job losses peaking at around 200,000.
After peaking in September, the unemployment rate is estimated to remain high but recover to 7 per cent by June 2021, supported by an estimated rebound of 6.25 per cent real GSP growth in calendar year 2021.
The pandemic is also affecting government revenue. Taxation revenue and GST grants are expected to be around $2.5 billion lower than the 2019-20 Budget Update forecast in 2019-20, and around $6 billion lower in 2020-21.
The Victorian Government has introduced measures to limit the economic damage from coronavirus (COVID-19). This includes over $9 billion in investments to support jobs and businesses, deliver frontline health response, and provide extra education, transport and social support.