Treasurer travel report - US

Purpose of travel

The purpose of the travel was to engage with major credit rating agencies and leading North American investment firms following the release of the Victorian State 2026-27 Budget to promote Victoria’s economic and fiscal position in a period of heightened global uncertainty.

The program provided an opportunity to:

• affirm Victoria’s commitment to its fiscal strategy and prudent financial management
• reinforce Victoria’s reputation as a stable, well-governed and credible issuer in international capital markets
• strengthen relationships with key credit rating agencies and investors
• build a greater understanding of emerging global and economic trends, including the accelerating role of artificial intelligence (AI) in driving market performance and economic growth.

The trip supported Victoria’s economic goals by strengthening relationships with key international stakeholders, promoted Victoria’s economic and financial reputation and assisted with gaining a stronger understanding of emerging global and economic trends.

Benefits of travel to the State of Victoria

The US is a leading trade and investment partner for Victoria.

This visit to New York focused on advancing Victoria's economic and financial interests, reinforcing investor confidence, and strengthening engagement with major credit rating agencies and key global financial investors and stakeholders.

The trip created a better understanding of the US's economic and fiscal outlook, at a time of continued market resilience despite elevated geopolitical and policy risk. This included:

• the scale and sustainability of AI investment, and its implications for economic growth, corporate revenue, employment and productivity
• the impact of US tariff policy and Middle East conflict on trade, investment sentiment and market volatility
• current market views on US fiscal sustainability, debt trajectories and financial market function
• emerging geopolitical trends, including the implications of the Iran and Ukraine conflict.

The trip consisted of meetings with:

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) New York office:

• Engagement with the RBA provided insights into the drivers of AI-related economic growth. The RBA also discussed the shifting US interest rate and its impact on the labour market.

Major credit rating agencies:

• Meetings with the major credit ratings agencies (S&P, Moody's and Fitch Ratings). These meetings provided an opportunity to affirm Victoria's progress against its fiscal strategy, including the outcomes of the 2026-27 Budget.
• Consistent themes across the agencies were continued confidence in economic and market resilience, growing dependence on AI investment, increasing fiscal and affordability pressures, and the need for major infrastructure investment in energy, data and utilities.
• Ratings agencies affirmed the importance of Victoria’s fiscal strategy for credit quality, debt trajectory, fiscal conditions and good financial governance.

Global investors, asset managers and funds:

• Meetings with a range of global investors and asset managers including PIMCO, JP Morgan, KKR, RedBird, TWG Global Office and Cornell Capital.
• These meetings covered insights on investment markets from both macroeconomic and geopolitical perspectives. Key themes from these meetings included:
  • the stability of markets despite the impact of tariffs, geopolitical shocks, fiscal concerns and broader uncertainty
  • AI investment driving gains in markets and economic activity, though the long term return on investment and sustainable level of spending remain uncertain
  • the economic value of the events economy in a global and Victorian context
  • continued geopolitical uncertainty in both Iran and Ukraine and stronger future investment on security, defence and critical infrastructure;
  • concerns around fiscal sustainability including deficits, debt sustainability, and continued government spending
  • a shift in the US economy toward growth driven more by capital rather than labour income.
• A dedicated session with JP Morgan’s Head of Analytics and AI research focused on operationalising AI at scale within a large business, where the main constraints are data quality, process design, governance and system reliability. The meeting covered the importance of human in the loop oversight and cyber security risk concerns.

This trip also consisted of:

• Meeting the Victorian Commissioner to the Americas which offered a valuable opportunity to discuss geopolitical and economic developments relevant to Victoria. The Commissioner also hosted a Roundtable with the American Australian Association, where the Treasurer briefed attendees and potential investors on Victoria’s economic performance and the key priorities and upcoming opportunities for the Victorian Government.
• A meeting with the Disney Theatrical Group, including discussion of opportunities for Disney productions in Melbourne.

Next steps/Follow up

The key next steps are to:

• Reflect key insights from economic outlook presentations and capital markets discussions in Victoria’s economic forecasting, economic policy settings and funding activities.
• Continue to engage with the credit ratings agencies to reinforce Victoria’s progress towards its fiscal strategy, including fiscal consolidation, future Commonwealth funding contributions, and potential savings from the independent review of the Victorian Public Service. The Treasurer, supported by departmental officials, met with Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings in Melbourne in June 2026, with all engagement viewed favourably.
• Consider the implications of the AI investment cycle, including its effects on productivity and labour markets, and for the Government's own approach to AI adoption, governance and data readiness.