Treasurer travel report - US

Purpose of travel

The purpose of this travel was to:

• Engage with the major credit rating agencies to promote Victoria’s economic credentials and affirm the Government’s fiscal strategy following the release of the State’s 2025-26 Budget.
• Strengthen trade and investment relationships with leading North American investment firms.
• Build a greater understanding of emerging global and economic trends.
• Assess economic and strategic developments presented by the current unforeseen volatility of markets and trade.
• Promote Victoria as a stable, well-governed jurisdiction, and an investment destination to key North America stakeholders.
• Engage with a range key stakeholders and industry experts including in financial markets, asset management, banking, economics and the geopolitical landscape.

The trip supported Victoria’s economic goals by strengthening relationships with key international stakeholders, promoting Victoria’s economic and financial reputation and assisted with building understanding of emerging global and economic trends.

Benefits of travel to the State of Victoria

The US is a leading trade and investment partner for Victoria. The US is Victoria’s:

• largest source of foreign direct investment (valued at $10.8 billion from 2019-2024)
• the second largest two-way merchandise trading partner (valued at $21.16 billion in 2024).

This visit to New York focused on advancing Victoria’s economic interests, reinforcing investor confidence, and strengthening engagement with major credit rating agencies and key global financial investors and stakeholders.

The trip created a better understanding of the US’s economic and fiscal outlook, particularly timely given the period of recent market volatility. This included:

• the impact of US tariffs on economic conditions, trade and investment sentiment
• the impact of the US Budget Reconciliation Bill on US borrowing needs and international investment
• current market views on US financial market function and stability
• emerging trends in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and likely impacts on productivity and the labour market.

The trip consisted of meetings with:

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) New York office and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

• Engagement with the RBA provided insights on the current economic environment and the RBA’s approach to decision making given heightened policy and economic uncertainty. The delegates also discussed market conditions including global capital flows and the potential for diversification by investors.
• Meeting with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York focused discussions on the global economic outlook and monetary policy settings including economic resilience, market dynamics during recent volatility, rising term premia, global capital flows and sentiment toward the US dollar.

Major credit ratings agencies:

• Meetings with the major credit ratings agencies (Moody's, Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor's). These meetings provided an opportunity to affirm Victoria's progress against its fiscal strategy.
• The meetings also provided insights into Moody’s and Standard and Poor's US inflation expectations, corporate balance sheets of US companies, and how US financial regulation may impact systemic financial risk. Moody’s and Standard and Poor's also shared their perspectives on the global macroeconomic outlook and trends.

Global Investors, asset managers and funds:

• Meetings with a range of global investors, asset managers and funds including, Macquarie Capital, Millennium Management, JP Morgan, Apollo Global Management, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Global Infrastructure Partners, IFM Investors, Sixth Street, Bridgewater Associates and PIMCO. These meetings covered insights on investment markets from both macroeconomic and geopolitical perspectives. Key themes from these meetings included:
  • Conversation with JP Morgan and Sixth Street on the role of AI in driving productivity and the impacts on employment as well as US exceptionalism in the industry. Discussions also touched on the future of AI data centres and the benefits of co-location of data centres and energy-generating facilities.
  • Concerns around the implications of rising US tariffs in the short, medium and long-term including associated pressures on employment, inflation and monetary policy.
  • Discussions with Apollo Global Management, IFM Investors and PIMCO on the impact of the US Budget Reconciliation Bill on the US deficit and debt servicing costs and foreign investment in the US.
  • Discussions on the growing importance and demand for sustainable investment products and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing in the international market and the future of the Inflation Reduction Act in the new administration with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
• Meeting with BlackRock focused on Victoria’s position as a stable and attractive investment destination, bolstered by lower exposure to global trade disruptions and the successful Victorian Budget. BlackRock noted positive market reaction to the Victorian Government’s 2025-26 Budget.
• Discussions with Brookfield provided insights on international offshore wind developments and the benefits of co-development of data centres and energy generation facilities.

This trip also consisted of:

• Meeting the Victorian Commissioner to the Americas. This provided a valuable opportunity to discuss geopolitical and economic developments relevant to Victoria. The Commissioner also hosted a Roundtable with the American Australian Association, where the Treasurer briefed attendees and potential investors on Victoria’s economic performance and the key priorities and upcoming opportunities for the Victorian Government.
• Visiting the United Nations (UN) New York office to discuss financial markets, the broader geopolitical landscape, the UN’s approach to ESG investing and their interest in Treasury Corporation of Victoria’s (TCV) Euro Commercial Paper program.

Next steps/Follow up

The key next steps are to:

• Reflect key insights from economic outlook presentations and capital markets discussions in Victoria’s economic forecasting, economic policy settings and funding activities.
• Continue to engage with the credit ratings agencies to reinforce Victoria’s progress towards its fiscal strategy, including fiscal consolidation, future Commonwealth funding contributions, and potential savings from the independent review of the Victorian Public Service. The Treasurer, supported by departmental officials, met with Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings in Melbourne in June 2025, with all engagement viewed favourably.
• TCV to follow up US-based investors as part of its investor diversification strategy, and to provide the UN Treasury with details on its Euro Commercial Paper program.